We steer our financial course through life choosing how much to spend and how to invest what’s left, periodically updating our choices as circumstances evolve. This is the essence of financial planning: specifying in advance a desired spending and investment policy conditional on relevant aspects of our life, varying investment opportunities, and our preferences for the benefits derived from our wealth.
This calculator is designed to help investors approach the question in a logical, utility-maximizing manner.
Global Balanced Fund (US Investors)
Global Balanced Fund (Non-US Investors)
Global Balanced Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs)
Global All Equity Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs)
Global All Equity Fund (Non-US Investors)
Returns Viewer
This calculator is for information purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice.
Historical Performance Analysis
Period Returns (Annualized):
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This information is for reference purposes only. It should not be used as the sole or primary basis for a decision to use Elm as an Investment Advisor or to invest in an Elm-managed Fund. If you have an Elm-managed SMA, the source of record for account balance and performance information is Fidelity and your Fidelity statements. If you have an investment in an Elm-managed Fund, the source of record for value and performance information is the Fund's Administrator, Circle Partners, and the Fund statements which you receive monthly.
This information includes simulated model data and historical backtest data from periods prior to Elm's inception in 2012. These model data use the most current program parameters, and are subject to all of the many limitations that are known to limit the predictive power of historical simulations. Model data do not include actual transaction costs, but they do include an approximate cost adjustment to reflect managements costs, transaction costs, instrument expense ratios, etc. For EPP Ltd. and EPAEP Ltd, model returns are based on regional closing-time prices. Actual portfolio returns represent a blend of regional and NY closing-time prices, and have been audited through the previous year.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
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Baseline Weights: The Baseline defines the strategy's 'average' asset allocation over a long period of time, and serves as the reference point for Long-Term and Trend deviations. The Baseline represents the asset-allocation that a prospective investor would choose were they seeking a static strategy. See here for more information about the Baseline construction methodology.
Target Weights:The target weights used in the periodic portfolio rebalancing. Portfolios may not be rebalanced exactly to target, as Elm's execution engine tries to find a parsimonious set of trades which get as close as possible to target weights while also minimizing transaction costs, tax costs, etc.
Target Weight Breakdown:
Expected Return: The target weight resulting only from the Expected return-based metric. We want target weights to be proportional to the Expected excess returns, while staying within 2/3 above or below the bucket's Baseline Weight.
Risk: The deviation caused by the Risk Metric. We want a positive Deviation in lower-risk environments, and vice versa. The size of Risk-based deviation can be at most 1/3 of the bucket's Baseline Weight.
The Target Weight is equal to the Return + Risk components in the Breakdown.
Expected Return Metric:
Equities: 1 / CAPE - 10y TIPS Real Yield (Excess Expected Return in excess of the long-term risk-free rate)
Fixed Income: 10y TIPS Real Yield
For a small number of asset buckets we use slightly different signals than described above, and a few buckets use secondary metrics as well. Please contact us for details if you're interested.
Risk Metric:
We use a momentum signal as a proxy for the risk-environment: positive momentum indicates a low-risk environment, negative momentum indictse a higher-risk environment.
Balanced: Spot Asset Class Total Return Index / 1y-Avg Total Return Index
(All indexes adjusted for inflation and risk-premia)
All-Equity: [Spot Asset Class Total Return Index / 1y-Avg Asset Class Total Return Index] - [Spot Baseline Total Return Index / 1y-Avg Baseline Total Return Index]
(All indexes adjusted for inflation and risk-premia)
Disclaimer
Elm Partners’ Funds are available only to accredited investors. The content of this website and related materials are not intended to solicit investment, but rather to elicit discussion and exploration of better ways to invest. The contents of this website do not comprise an offering document. Neither historical simulations nor past return performance are necessarily indicative of future returns. Elm Partners Management LLC is an investment advisor registered with the SEC. Here are the most recent copies of our Form ADV Part 1, ADV Part 2A2B and Form CRS.
Fidelity Investments (“Fidelity”) is an independent company, unaffiliated with Elm Partners (“Elm”). Fidelity is a service provider to Elm. There is no form of legal partnership, agency affiliation, or similar relationship between your financial advisor and Fidelity, nor is such a relationship created or implied by the information herein. Fidelity has not been involved with the preparation of the content supplied by Elm and does not guarantee, or assume any responsibility for, its content. Fidelity Investments is a registered trademark of FMR LLC. Fidelity InstitutionalSM provides clearing, custody, and other brokerage services through National Financial Services LLC or Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Members NYSE, SIPC. 830247.3.0
